Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.021750 14.881763 16.898134 19.244460 21.897776 24.803287 28.224234
2024-10-27 9.657887 12.007334 14.759391 18.213783 22.426461 27.389297 33.671745
2024-11-03 8.484101 11.125272 14.373743 18.649305 24.114049 30.849198 39.763333
2024-11-10 7.579717 10.417988 14.062033 19.061768 25.719100 34.251829 45.988007
2024-11-17 6.665510 9.548461 13.391953 18.860390 26.405841 36.410747 50.636602
2024-11-24 5.865822 8.728727 12.679660 18.490717 26.773221 38.098817 54.693666
2024-12-01 5.321259 8.198333 12.295789 18.506856 27.623211 40.440115 59.734561
2024-12-08 4.939757 7.859215 12.139652 18.810758 28.869719 43.375859 65.758581
2024-12-15 4.565127 7.488371 11.894069 18.942994 29.844975 45.946863 71.373074
2024-12-22 4.166161 7.038266 11.483254 18.776613 30.334339 47.798681 75.990968
2024-12-29 3.891814 6.759113 11.308311 18.950594 31.338886 50.459521 81.963195
2025-01-05 3.735627 6.657634 11.402321 19.549664 33.037470 54.268041 89.915502
2025-01-12 3.428476 6.280840 11.028080 19.371778 33.495897 56.194290 95.073646
2025-01-19 2.995859 5.647619 10.175323 18.327143 32.447469 55.629826 96.159802
2025-01-26 2.863190 5.533772 10.196167 18.767754 33.913691 59.242948 104.315101
2025-02-02 2.736930 5.419404 10.204662 19.181854 35.352320 62.880040 112.703195
2025-02-09 2.529503 5.134117 9.883803 18.979549 35.686472 64.644475 117.964538
2025-02-16 2.318072 4.821816 9.488058 18.607569 35.683532 65.810444 122.226684
2025-02-23 2.177220 4.634895 9.310207 18.623834 36.380958 68.233945 128.830870
2025-03-02 2.083733 4.534362 9.287726 18.929549 37.628164 71.698362 137.481804
2025-03-09 1.976598 4.396294 9.181178 19.062580 38.551774 74.615373 145.274711
2025-03-16 1.844423 4.194093 8.932061 18.895201 38.882123 76.445459 151.132516
2025-03-23 1.758801 4.083586 8.858169 19.070224 39.884942 79.576128 159.584138